We had Andy Burnham’s big conference speech, which by all accounts went down exceptionally well in the Labour Party. Most pundits seemed to think it was some of the best oratory we’ve had since Blair, which is welcome. Given the weaknesses of Starmer, Sunak, and others, a politician seemingly comfortable in their own skin and willing to communicate their ideas is most welcome.
Unfortunately, I found his ideas and vision for the country to be almost absurdly nostalgic, and strangely detached from the immediate issues facing the UK. There are significant problems coming down for the UK, and he didn’t address them. The worry is that he and the wider Labour Party are in denial about the problems we face, or are unwilling to truly address them.
His ideas:
- Believing that for 40 years Britain has been on the wrong path: why has this only seemingly shown up in the last decade or so? Growth at the end of the Major government and throughout the New Labour era was heads and shoulders above what we have now, with real sustained improvements in living standards. Was that all entirely fake, or not worth it?
- An emphasis on council homes being the method to solve the housing crisis, and giving councils the ability to buy unused homes. I found this extraordinary. We have some of the lowest levels of unused homes in Europe. To me, this betrays a lack of political imagination and unwillingness to confront the deeper issues around our planning rules, which makes me nervous. The private sector can deliver houses, we have seen it before in our country, and across the rest of the world too. It requires significant planning reforms, and regulatory changes, not just public investment.
- His comments on public ownership of utilities, and how British energy is some of the highest in Europe – this doesn’t address the fundamental issues around economic incentives. Rearranging who owns which assets will not do much when the underlying incentives favour intermittent energy supplies and don’t capitalise on our existing energy resources (though I welcome his comments about the North Sea).
- Major social care reform. As I noted on a prior post, I do appreciate Burnham burning political capital on social care reform, but the lack of political imagination or deeper curiosity about our systems alarms me. Our NHS system has perennially struggled, due to its structure, as I noted in a previous post. A social care system built along the same lines will encounter the same issues.
- Open to rejoining Europe. This seems in conflict with Burnham’s complaint about Britain being on the wrong path for 40 years – why was being in the EU the exception? Furthermore, this struck me as unwilling to see what is in front of him. The EU right now is significantly different to the one we voted to leave in 2016; so are we. Are we willing to once again, having left officially in 2021, go through the entire process of rejoining, and more importantly, would the EU member states be as well? Areas like finance and AI, real strengths of the UK, would lose out if we were to rejoin as we would be required to align with EU regulatory frameworks, and areas around the rebate and the euro would be far worse than before. Again, this struck me as something you might do after a decade of strong domestic growth and reform. At the moment, in this horrendous economic bind, it just seems like lazy thinking.
- Electoral reform: It seems odd to me that a party that massively benefited from FPTP only 2 years ago now wants to remove it and bring in a new system. Said new system, PR, is unlikely to benefit left-wing parties such as Labour, if we go by other nations in Europe’s results. Again, it seems a luxurious thing for government to be focussing on, and I am sceptical about how much PR leads to economic growth.
So, a worrying amount of Labour nostalgia, that will (and has) played well to the party faithful, but probably doesn’t actually address the UK’s issues. It’s also worth noting in this speech what was left out – defence was completely absent, as was crime. Immigration too was loosely addressed, perhaps an electoral calculation given Labour will not compromise in this area, given the risk of voters defecting to the Greens or Liberal Democrats.
Given the above, I’m actually more bearish on Burnham than I was at first. However, given the split between Reform and Conservatives on the right, and the weakening of the Greens, it may still be viable for him to form another government in 2029. Unfortunately, based on these ideas, it’s unlikely to lead to a stronger UK.
