I mentioned a while ago doing 10 things Burnham should do in the October budget. Now that we’ve had a few weeks of Parliament, I thought I should come up with a list.
You will note that I haven’t mentioned national reforms to energy, planning, tax reform, and other critical areas the UK is struggling with. Frankly, I’ve seen no evidence that Burnham or those around him are willing to alter the current framework. All I can do is try and think through what he might do, even if I’m sceptical about how much he’s thought about governing.
Anyway, here are said thoughts:
- Recognise that growth is integral to a democracy, and focus on driving that at all costs. Look, it’s not exactly earth-shattering or a unique take. But in a democracy, we consistently see ever-greater demands on the state: national defence initially, pensions, healthcare, and more. Growth makes paying for these possible. Right now, the UK has consistently struggled to accept this tradeoff – voters despise growth policies, but they absolutely hate having to ration and share the pie.
- Tradeoffs are also inevitable, and Burnham needs to drop his “good growth in every postcode” shtick as quickly as possible. It is a meaningless slogan and shows a lack of serious thinking behind his government’s purpose. What is good growth, and how would this be done in every postcode – why has it not already been done? Can this be replicated successfully? Do all areas have the same needs or strategic objectives?
- If Burnham is serious about devolution, he needs to embrace it fully. To which – allow regions the right to cut taxes / cut spending, and remove as many statutory obligations as possible. This includes: adult social care, special needs provision, homelessness, roads, etc. Let each region decide for itself what it wants and do so in response to voters’ concerns. Allow them to cut taxes and cut back on spending too if their voters wish. Also, let these regions and cities change local laws – planning is a priority, energy is another, transportation too, and so on. The aim is to allow a wide range of approaches to governance in the UK and to allow the ones that do well to grow, and to reduce the ones that fail.
- Unfortunately for Burnham, this will lead to unfairness and unequal outcomes. Different regions will have different performances. The test is whether he is truly willing to accept that about devolution.
- Defence has to be sorted out, and his comment about defence being behind welfare in Parliament was highly alarming. We have a massive land war in Europe, with huge innovation in drone warfare, and we still seem to be treating defence as a luxury, or something that can be put off till later. No more of this. The procurement issue at the MoD needs to be sorted one way or another. Eat the cost if needed, and move on.
- As an island nation, our navy is the most important part of our defence, followed by our air force. These two parts of the armed forces have to be prioritised. And unfortunately, this is going to have to come at the expense of welfare spending. Sorry, but a nation cannot survive on universal credit.
- Welfare naturally is going to be a brutal fight, especially for the Labour Party. Given what happened under Starmer and Reeves, I understand Burnham will want to run a million miles from touching this again. Labour MPs will be highly unwilling to commit to cuts given their rhetoric about austerity and their backgrounds from the charity and think tank sectors.
- I think there is a potential area for him to look at, which is the Triple Lock. I don’t think he can simply propose abandoning it, even though on a variety of metrics the UK is pretty good for pensioner welfare. But perhaps if he rolled into welfare reforms around younger people, and linked any Triple Lock growth back to real wage growth, this could realign incentives. Also, the ones most likely to vote against this, the over-55s, are already considering voting Reform or Tories anyway. There may be a way to square this circle, but I appreciate it is very high risk.
It’s relatively thin, but until I get more of an idea about Burnham’s philosophy, this is the best I can do. I think the more optimistic takes about major reforms to the UK under his leadership are already very unlikely. Leaders who know their own minds, such as Blair and Cameron, set the agenda from the first day in office. The fact that we are still waiting for Burnham to articulate his worldview makes me think we are back to drifting once again.
