As usual, three of the most interesting things I’ve read in the last week below. The Sub-Saharan piece by Alice Evans was probably the most interesting, as I know very little about the region.
Still trying to read through pieces, blogs, and research papers on Britain’s energy policies throughout the decades. Hopefully I’ll be able to start writing soon.
https://substack.com/inbox/post/195242013
- Re:State have been putting out some interesting pieces recently, not least on social care. I’ve still yet to get to it, but I will share some thoughts once I’ve had a chance.
- This piece ties back into my view on devolution as being essential to unlock the UK’s potential. As they note, the one thing Westminster fears is that a potential outcome is unfair.
- As ever, it comes back to incentives. Local government has very little incentive to drive growth and improve people’s lives – far too much is contingent on the central government. Until we realign benefits and costs together, we are unlikely to see any progress.
- This means weakening the central government and reducing the power of the civil service and associated quangos. It’s hard to imagine that right now, but I am hopeful we are slowly inching towards that future.
- I found this quite a thought provoking piece on what it means by the centre and centrists more generally. The challenge for us all is that, as Ian Leslie says, the median voter is both seriously misinformed and also very inconsistent. See the idea about cutting MPs’ salaries for the NHS, for instance.
- Leslie gives a solid definition for Centrism
- A more charitable interpretation of the term is that it means “ambitious about winning power by winning over voters from beyond my base and then governing effectively, in a way that consolidates and expands my coalition”. (OK, not a great bumper sticker). Governing effectively will and should mean different things to different leaders, but centrism doesn’t set the direction. It’s a political method, not a philosophy. You need both.
- There is a significant part of me that wonders if this is even possible at the moment. From YouGov, the current split is 27% for Reform, about 15-17% for Conservatives, Labour, and Green, and then 13% for Liberal Democrats. Now I suspect that this will change significantly as the election nears and the electorate has to consider the impact of voting for their preferred parties.
- The deeper question is what philosophy each party espouses. I’m really struggling to see one across any of the major parties at present, though again, there is time before the election for each party to flesh out their beliefs.
https://substack.com/inbox/post/194873867
- Alice Evans consistently puts out great pieces on gender, economics, and wider culture, and this is no exception.
- Evans thesis is that Islamic armies were able to conquer pre-existing imperial structures across Eurasia and North Africa swiftly. However, in Sub-Saharan Africa, this failed to happen due to poor geographical conditions – basically poor quality soil and terrain.
- It’s an interesting argument that ties into Guns, Germs, and Steel and other theories, but the exploration between Islam and the existing ethnic and tribal beliefs is most interesting. It’s not necessarily the fault of one or the other, but clearly the way they build on each other has led to materially worse outcomes for the region.
- All in all, I’m not sure about how best to approach this region in terms of aid and development. Naturally, an emphasis on farming help would be a start, but the security element is critical. Given the lack of state capacity, outside help is likely to be counterproductive, and yet without it, there’s no chance of progress.
