I’ve been meaning to write a post about Between the Waves by Tom McTague for awhile now.
Firstly, the book itself is an excellent read about how the British political class (with a handful of exceptions) consistently deludes itself over the nature of the European Union. I would highly recommend that anyone with an interest in UK-EU relations read this, or frankly, any current affairs interest.
What I think makes this book so fascinating is the bind that “leavers” or “remainers” find themselves in relation to the EU now. Leavers would argue that (re)joining the EU entails giving up unacceptable levels of political control for no economic benefit (and that this is increasingly becoming a disadvantage over time). Remainers would argue that we have significantly hurt our economy for illusory domestic sovereignty, and giving up influence within the EU (and that this is as far as integration will go). McTague would suggest from history that both sides are deluding themselves. The leavers assumed that Britain could exit the EU with minimal disruption to its economy, which was proven wrong from 2016 onwards, though not to the hysterical levels predicted by the Remain campaign. From the remainers, the key argument was that Britain could pick and choose its economic benefits, without giving up significant levels of sovereignty and crucially, the EU would remain firmly out of the political sphere. But from the beginning, the EU has been set up as “an ever closer union”, and McTague consistently highlights British politicians being unable or unwilling to grasp this reality in their dealings with it. This cuts across Labour and Conservatives, with key figures such as Thatcher and Blair both unable to fully reconcile their understanding of British interests with the EU interests.
Part of the problem is that British politicians viewed the EU as a way to enhance British power (or to mask underlying weaknesses), but failed to consider the associated political consequences of doing so. You cannot demand influence, but significant carveouts from an organisation, and then be surprised when said organisation consistently shifts away from you. What makes this ironic to me is that for the most part the UK problems are nearly entirely self-inflicted – massive centralisation under Thatcher and a lack of room for experiment and risk taking in the local regions, net zero being written into law by parliament, the TCPA and other associated NIMBYISM acts. Those issues were and are eminently able to be addressed inside or outside the EU. But they also require significant political costs to key domestic stakeholders that are unlikely to ever agree to them and so the consistent out was a move towards Europe.
I’m not entirely sure where that leaves the UK now. From the polls it seems clear that most voters consider Brexit to have gone badly, but there does not appear to be any appetite to rejoin. Part of this is likely because the EU is also struggling economically, making our own underperformance appear more palatable, but I suspect it’s mostly voters remembering how miserable the entire Brexit process was. I also think there is awareness that to rejoin would be to reopen the same questions that our political class have never been able to face, namely, can a nation with a fundamentally different history, political structure, and world outlook (debatable) integrate into a different system. But given the insurmountable problems that the UK faces (and here insurmountable means politically untouchable), rejoining the EU may be advocated by whatever replaces Labour as the centre-left party as a quick fix to our economic problems.
Other items I’ve read / watched / listened to recently:
- Welcome to Faketown by Anon and I: brilliant episode on how the UK economy consists of transfers propping up entire parts of the country. Given the economic strangulation of the UK this surely is going to have to end, but I have no idea how you unwind it without further massive damage. Personally, I’m in the Tom Forth school of thought that says devolve political and economic power to the regions, smash the centre, and see what happens.
- The Constitution of Innovation; A New European Renaissance: Honestly delighted that someone in the EU with influence is trying to fight the good economic fight but I wonder if they’re deluding themselves like the British have done. Can any nation state in the EU accept definite losers in return for vague winners? But I hope this is read widely and followed up with action.
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